Monday Market Moves | Week of 23 June 2025
Welcome to Monday Market Moves, the weekly series from Essex Capital Markets briefing you on Chicago commercial real estate capital markets. We cover key trends in CRE debt, refinancing, and capital structures to help investors, borrowers, and lenders navigate today’s evolving environment.
This Week: Buying Commercial Real Estate Chicago: Market Signals
This week’s data shows quiet but meaningful tailwinds across Chicago: leasing velocity is returning, transit infrastructure is being modernized, and inflation is settling—supporting more confident underwriting. At the same time, lending is being affected by some shifting in market forces. Troubled debt is on the rise, yet some pressure still exists to group loan portfolios. These dynamics will lead to opportunities.
River North Retail Reabsorption in Motion
Retail vacancy in River North has begun to decline after peaking near 20%. Aldi’s lease of a former Whole Foods space helped push the rate down to 19.6%. Now, small-format F&B, wellness, and service tenants are actively backfilling prime corners—driven by steady foot traffic from hotels, residents, and office workers.
Why it matters:
– Re-leasing boosts comps and investor sentiment
– Mid-market tenants are regaining access to Class A locations
Adaptive Reuse Finds Its Footing
From Austin to Englewood to Pullman, developers are converting underused office, bank, and industrial buildings into apartments, retail, and community spaces. Recent projects include the Pullman Artspace Lofts, the Laramie State Bank cultural center, and a new food hall inside a historic Englewood firehouse.
Why it matters:
– Lower basis + flexible layouts = improved risk-adjusted returns
– Public-private alignment and city incentives help deals pencil
Metra Secures $104M in Federal Transit Grants
Metra just locked in $104M for capital improvements:
– $80M to fully renovate Van Buren Street Station
– $23.7M for battery-electric locomotives
– $800K for Edgebrook Station upgrades
Why it matters:
– Positions key nodes for future TOD potential
– Improves accessibility, reliability, and regional connectivity—especially on the South and West Sides
Inflation Holds Steady
May CPI: +2.4% YoY (Core CPI: +2.8%)
Inflation remains near target, easing from 2022 highs. Shelter costs are sticky, but goods and energy are cooling. Lenders and investors are gaining clarity—and deal activity is beginning to reflect it.
Why it matters:
– Underwriting assumptions are stabilizing
– Borrowers are seeing more consistent rate quotes across lenders
Final Thought
This may or may not be a pivotal moment, but it is a time where unique opportunities will present themselves. With retail re-leasing, reuse momentum, transit dollars flowing, and inflation settling, the foundation is there for smart mid-market capital to move. At Essex, we provide value by helping out clients navigate the capital stack in the most efficient, and ultimately, the most beneficial manner.
At Essex Capital Markets, we’re helping clients navigate this environment by structuring smart, strategic capital solutions that align with both current realities and long-term goals—across acquisitions, refinances, and recapitalizations.
To speak with our Capital Markets team about buying commercial real estate Chicago, please fill out the form below.