Monday Market Moves | Week of November 3, 2025
Welcome to Monday Market Moves, the weekly series from Essex Capital Markets briefing you on Chicago commercial real estate capital markets. We cover key trends in CRE debt, refinancing, and capital structures to help investors, borrowers, and lenders navigate today’s CRE financing market.
This Week: Refinance Window Opens as Rates Stabilize
After a period of elevated long-term rates and refinancing hesitation, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield currently sits at 4.09% (Nov. 3 2025) — a modest pull-back that improves underwriting for fixed-rate debt. (FRED)
At the same time, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association show that about 20% ($957 billion) of commercial and multifamily mortgages outstanding were set to mature in 2025, with another $440 billion in 2026. If you have an upcoming maturity, the time to start considering options is now. (MBA) (Globest)
Together these dynamics suggest a narrow opportunity: owners with cash-flowing, stabilized assets can lock more favorable terms now, but timing and execution will be key.
National Landscape: Improving Debt Metrics, But No Free Ride
Originations in the commercial/multifamily space are forecast at $583 billion in 2025, up ~16% from 2024. (CRE Daily)
Overall, this increase in market activity is a good sign, indicating that access to capital remains available. However, lender underwriting is still somewhat conservative with heavier scrutiny remains for lease-up, transitional, and value-add assets. Also, headwinds in the general economic picture may put pressure on lender spreads, potentially driving up overall borrowing costs next year.
What’s Driving the Refinance Window
• Rate relief: A retreat in long-term yields improves debt service for fixed-rate financing.
• Loan maturities: With ~$950 billion of debt maturing this year, and ~$440 billion in 2026, many borrowers are facing decision points between refinance, extend, or restructure.
• Allocation deadlines: Lenders and agencies often seek to deploy capital before year-end, increasing responsiveness for well-positioned deals.
For borrowers in the Chicago market, these factors combine into a “now or soon” window to act before the 2026 environment potentially tightens.
Chicago Signals: Commercial Real Estate Refinance Activity Accelerates
Chicago’s multifamily sector continues to anchor market liquidity.
With steady rent fundamentals and limited new supply, qualified borrowers are securing fixed-rate debt at competitive terms. Assets with occupancy above 90% and debt service coverage ratios exceeding 1.25× are achieving the strongest pricing. Agency lenders remain active in 70–75% LTV executions, while select banks and life companies are offering flexible refinance structures at slightly lower leverage.
Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities:
Borrowers can refinance into longer maturities and lower fixed-rate exposure.
Investors acquiring now benefit from improved debt service assumptions and can structure preferred equity or JV entry points.
Risks:
If yields tick up or spreads widen, the current advantage could evaporate.
Transitional or high-leverage assets still face credit hurdles despite the better rate backdrop.
This window may be short-lived — delay may mean missing the optimal execution window.
How Essex Capital Markets Is Advising Clients
At Essex Capital Markets we are actively:
Monitoring daily Treasury, swap, and credit-spread movement to advise on rate-lock timing.
Engaging with agency, regional bank, debt-fund, and bridge-lenders to structure competitive executions for year-end closings.
Stress-testing refinancing scenarios for clients in Chicago, layering in sub-market rent trends, valuation shifts, and capital-stack flexibility to position for 2026.
Our partnership with Essex Realty Group ensures local market insight paired with capital-markets expertise to help clients execute strategically now.
Bottom Line: Act Before the Window Closes
The decline in long-term rates and the push to refinance reflect a favorable moment, but it’s finite. For Chicago borrowers with upcoming maturities or acquisition plans, entering the market now with disciplined underwriting and execution readiness may separate those who capture the opportunity from those who don’t.
Sources:
FRED – U.S. Department of the Treasury 10-Year Yield (DGS10)
CRE Daily – MBA Forecasts $583B in 2025 CRE Lending
GlobeSt – CRE Faces $440B Loan Maturity Wave Through 2026
CoStar – Chicago Multifamily Market Q3 2025 Update
To speak with our Capital Markets team about buying commercial real estate refinancing, please fill out the form below.