Monday Market Moves | Week of 30 June 2025
Welcome to Monday Market Moves, the weekly series from Essex Capital Markets briefing you on Chicago commercial real estate capital markets. We cover key trends in CRE debt, refinancing, and capital structures to help investors, borrowers, and lenders navigate today’s evolving environment.
This Week: Chicago Multifamily Market Update: Rent Growth, Capital Trends & Tax Relief
Midwest Multifamily Heats Up
While the Sun Belt works through oversupply, the Midwest’s reputation as the overlooked stepchild is finally fading. The Chicago multifamily market continues to stand out, with rents rising 4.2% year-over-year in May — the third-highest increase in the nation. Cities like Indianapolis and Madison are also posting rent growth well above the national average of ~1%.
Sales volume tells the story too: first-quarter multifamily sales in Chicago more than doubled from a year ago, with Class A prices jumping 33% above the recent three-year average. Capital is moving accordingly — Morgan Properties made a $500M Midwest bet this spring, and Clear Investment Group is targeting $300M to expand its workforce housing portfolio.
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Why it matters:
Nationwide: Normalizing Supply, Steady Demand
Across the country, supply pipelines are easing back to historical norms. After record completions in 2024, new deliveries are stepping down to 536,000 units in 2025, keeping markets balanced — especially in regions like the Midwest where new starts have been disciplined.
While national rent growth is moderating at about 1–1.5%, the regional story matters more: SOME underbuilt markets IN like the Midwest continue to outperform, with absorption staying strong and leasing remaining active.
Well-located, cash-flowing properties remain the preferred play for many private buyers. Transaction volume is measured, but liquidity is ample, and creative buyers are stepping into deals where they can bring fresh capital and operating know-how to stabilize properties and benefit from steady rent growth.
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Why it matters:
Property Tax Stability Eases Investor Sentiment
Chicago’s property tax uncertainty is subsiding. The Cook County Assessor reports that estimated commercial property tax rates for 2025 declined, as assessed values have grown faster than levy increases, helping ease pressure on income-generating assets. Additionally, a new $15M Homeowner Relief Fund is in place to support households hit with sharp tax hikes, signaling progress and transparency in the tax system.
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Why it matters:
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What We’re Watching
Final Thought
For all the noise, the fundamentals remain solid: limited new supply, steady demand, and opportunities for well-prepared capital to step in where others hesitate. From top-tier Class A to workforce housing, the Chicago multifamily market presents a compelling opportunity — and patient capital is taking notice.
From all of us at Essex Capital Markets — have a safe and happy Fourth of July. Here’s to smart investing, strong partnerships, and a summer of steady growth.
Sources:
Bisnow
YieldPro
Cook County Illinois
To speak with our Capital Markets team about how multi family lenders are approaching today’s market, please fill out the form below.