Monday Market Moves | Week of November 17, 2025

Welcome to Monday Market Moves, the weekly series from Essex Capital Markets briefing you on Chicago commercial real estate capital markets. We cover key trends in CRE debt, refinancing, and capital structures to help investors, borrowers, and lenders navigate today’s CRE financing market.

This Week: Why Borrowers with Maturities in 2026 Should Start Their Process Now

Many owners with 2026 maturities assume there’s plenty of time. But in the current landscape – where the 10‑Year Treasury Yield is hovering around 4.11% (as of mid-November)  and commercial mortgage spreads remain elevated yet competitive – early preparation is becoming a clear competitive advantage. With lenders finalizing year-end allocations and underwriting more conservatively, borrowers who begin now put themselves in a stronger position going into 2026.

Why Starting Early Matters

• The 10-Year Treasury yield sitting just above 4% signals that fixed-rate debt remains a higher cost environment—waiting “until rates drop” may not increase proceeds meaningfully.

• Lenders are seeing credit fundamentals remain stable: one commentary noted the CRE lending market “remains liquid, with a broad and accommodating base of capital sources” as year-end approaches.

• Credit spreads which are currently at historically reasonable levels may widen in 2026 (for example, average spreads in Q2 2025 were ~193 basis points) which means borrowers should lock in structure and all-in rate while momentum exists.

• Beginning the process now allows time for diligence, structure negotiations and comparison across capital sources—rather than scrambling under deadline pressure.

Key Advantages for 2026 Borrowers Who Act Now

• Locking in favorable structure terms (interest-only periods, flexible prepay, tailored amortization) while lenders allocate capital for the next cycle.

• Gaining clarity on equity needs or potential performance gaps before maturity becomes imminent.

• Accessing multiple lender types (banks, life companies, credit unions, private debt) now when they are still actively underwriting for 2026 exposure.

• Reducing execution risk by avoiding the “late-in-the-year rush” where underwriters tighten further and negotiation leverage decreases.

Bottom Line

With the 10-Year Treasury yield near 4.1% and spreads potentially widening from current levels, the window to secure optimal structure and terms is open now. Borrowers with 2026 maturities who initiate the process today stand to benefit from timing and optionality – waiting until maturity approaches may cost more in leverage, structure flexibility, and execution certainty.

Sources:

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
• https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/commercial-real-estate-lending-rebound-continues-despite-market-challenges
• https://www.aegonam.com/aegon-insights/real-assets/us-commercial-mortgage-loans-quarterly-commentary2/
• https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/commercial-real-estate-lending-rebound-continues-despite-market-challenges

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